Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.232153 2.344016 2.463212 2.600548 2.755562 2.926528 3.131390
2025-03-23 2.085140 2.240971 2.415996 2.630298 2.890358 3.202637 3.617977
2025-03-30 1.947420 2.121390 2.323019 2.579494 2.906101 3.322884 3.924503
2025-04-06 1.839326 2.022303 2.239069 2.522484 2.896713 3.397832 4.173486
2025-04-13 1.760930 1.950883 2.180039 2.486746 2.904831 3.490014 4.460036
2025-04-20 1.724407 1.926646 2.175664 2.518074 3.002892 3.720084 5.024111
2025-04-27 1.707114 1.924040 2.196910 2.583150 3.153683 4.054626 5.902793
2025-05-04 1.667637 1.890376 2.174571 2.584863 3.209293 4.244409 6.589903
2025-05-11 1.632551 1.860157 2.154317 2.586785 3.263819 4.441355 7.415246
2025-05-18 1.580779 1.805735 2.098323 2.532419 3.221886 4.451913 7.757719
2025-05-25 1.548506 1.775535 2.073632 2.522023 3.250154 4.602441 8.645206
2025-06-01 1.517172 1.745224 2.047121 2.506707 3.267878 4.734900 9.624305
2025-06-08 1.480180 1.707107 2.009513 2.474421 3.257162 4.814626 10.571363
2025-06-15 1.465704 1.698693 2.013087 2.505611 3.361969 5.180899 13.822052
2025-06-22 1.428893 1.658615 1.969848 2.460409 3.322494 5.195299 15.058913
2025-06-29 1.392347 1.617849 1.924171 2.408944 3.266928 5.159492 15.918556
2025-07-06 1.363506 1.586840 1.891460 2.376574 3.244767 5.207092 17.981585
2025-07-13 1.354035 1.582090 1.896374 2.404964 3.341900 5.604274 29.970563
2025-07-20 1.353437 1.589455 1.919069 2.463806 3.507466 6.282879 NaN
2025-07-27 1.337393 1.574623 1.908161 2.465353 3.555143 6.615627 NaN
2025-08-03 1.322231 1.560561 1.897805 2.467089 3.603416 6.980402 NaN
2025-08-10 1.294767 1.528412 1.859179 2.417950 3.534943 6.868574 NaN
2025-08-17 1.278520 1.511853 1.843703 2.408539 3.554686 7.128541 NaN